32: The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli

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-Do you want a Yeti?
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-I am.
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This is my portable podcasting studio.
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-Okay.
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So that means you are mobile.
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Where are you?
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-I am in Door County, sister Bay, to be precise.
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-Okay, vacation?
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-Mm, kind of working vacation.
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-Okay.
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-My parents have a place in sister Bay,
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and I can work from anywhere.
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So we came up Sunday night,
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and we just been hanging out up here,
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and I've been working remote.
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Even funny anecdote about this,
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sister Bay, which is about 800 people,
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actually has better internet than I can buy
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in Nina, Wisconsin, where I live.
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So this is better internet than my house,
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even though Nina is probably,
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gosh, I don't know, 20 times the size?
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No, not 20 times.
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Yeah, 20 times the size.
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Wow.
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-And you have pretty good internet at home.
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I feel like--
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-Yes, it's okay.
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Usually when I record, I'm at the co-working space,
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which is in Appleton.
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It's a little bit bigger town,
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and that actually has a fiber connection.
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-Right, right.
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'Cause I remember you telling me
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that you had a pretty good data connection
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at your co-working space,
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but I guess I was comparing it to that.
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So your co-working space,
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in comparison to your house,
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is there a big difference in speed there?
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-Upload, yeah.
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I mean, the fastest I can get at home is five up,
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but at the co-working space, it's 50 down, 50 up.
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-Oh, wow.
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See, everybody looks at the download speeds,
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but--
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-Doesn't matter.
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- --it has to be a master's,
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and we do--
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like, we're uploading video files and stuff.
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They're big files, so upload speed is very important.
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-Definitely.
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-Right.
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I'm gonna--
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you're gonna have to cut this part out,
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but I'm gonna have to move my microphone up a little bit
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'cause I can't hunch over the entire episode.
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There we go.
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-Hmm, maybe I should leave this in.
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[laughs]
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I created a makeshift standing desk.
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-A makeshift standing desk.
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Now, see, right before we started,
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because I know that you record standing up, right?
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You like to stand up and talk.
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I always sit at my desk with--
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I have a Herman Miller Airon that I use for a desk chair.
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Super nice chair.
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Love them.
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Crazy expensive.
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Don't-- yeah.
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OK, we're not gonna go down that train.
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But I have debated trying to find a way to raise my microphone
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so that I can stand and podcast.
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I don't know if that would change the way
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that I have conversations on a mic or not.
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I know a lot of people seem to think it makes a big difference.
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I've never tried it, so I can't speak to that in any way.
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But you seem to like it.
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-I do.
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Now, maybe listeners to Bookworm
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might think a little bit differently,
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but I am much more animated when I'm standing up.
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[laughs]
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And that's something that I've had to learn and develop
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as I've done podcasting is--
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and it just comes from recording
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and then hearing the episodes after they go live.
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When I first started, it was very, very monotone,
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and honestly very boring to listen to,
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so I'm hoping that that is not the case anymore.
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[laughs]
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But one of the things that I do to kind of trick myself
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to being a little bit more animated is I don't normally do this,
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but when I podcast, I try to talk with my hands.
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So having a microphone on a desk, though,
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this could be tricky.
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I might accidentally whack the microphone a few times.
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Well, don't hit the mic because then I have to edit more.
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[laughs]
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So that would mean that if I stand up,
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well, you normally record--
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like you have a boom stand for your mic,
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so that way you're not whacking it.
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Okay, that makes sense.
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Okay.
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I may try this the next time we record or something.
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I don't know.
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I have to find a way to mount it
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because I'm currently mounting my boom stand.
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It's not on my desk,
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but it's attached to a shelf
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that's the same height as my desk,
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and I can't get it up high enough to stand for it.
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I tried.
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So I would need to do something,
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like mount something to the wall
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so that I can then mount the mic to the thing
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I mounted to the wall.
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It's not as simple as just raise it up.
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So I want to try this at some point.
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Yeah, I have an electric standing desk
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and it's awesome because you can program the heights,
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so I have one for sitting, one for standing,
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and I don't know why,
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but I absolutely love hitting the button here
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and go, "Mmm."
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(laughs)
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This is what you do in your breaks, right?
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You just raise your desk and lower it back and forth.
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I'm gonna take advantage of that harvest seven year warranty.
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(laughs)
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See if I can get this thing to wear out.
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That I can get a new one.
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Let's go through our follow up.
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We've got some fun things here.
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You put on Roger Bustle's poetry.
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I haven't looked at this.
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I'm gonna click the link now.
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Yeah, so we mentioned this in the last episode,
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and I dropped the ball and didn't get you the link.
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So I wanted to just throw that in here
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because Roger listened to the episode
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and was pretty thrilled that we gave him a shout out.
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So here's another one, Roger,
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and we're actually gonna include the link this time.
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(laughs)
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It's totally my fault because I didn't get it to you right away
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and then was kind of surprised
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when the episode came out a few days later.
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So good job, Joe, I'm turning that one around.
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(laughs)
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So for the listeners, I'm usually quite slow
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at getting episodes released.
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I think Mike's probably used to my one and a half week turnaround
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after we record,
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and that one I got out in like two days.
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So I will say that's my fault more than Mike's fault.
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(laughs)
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Well, I did honestly, I will admit that I forgot
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about the link.
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I probably would have remembered it at some point,
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maybe when I saw you at Macstock,
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and I think that's why you turned it around so quick.
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Right, 'cause I knew that we were gonna be seeing each other
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at Macstock and I wanted that one out before.
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We saw each other, that way we would potentially,
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'cause we potentially were going to record at Macstock
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but it didn't work out.
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We always plan to do that but it needs, yeah.
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So we get busy and yeah, it just doesn't work out,
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I don't think, but it's something that--
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Planning fallacy.
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Yeah, there's one of these,
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we're gonna jump into the book here quick.
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So there's a lot of reasons that we just don't get there,
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but we always intend to, but yeah.
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So anyway, I got this one out,
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the last one out in a couple days,
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and Mike didn't have a chance to send me this.
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So I'm now looking through Roger's poetry.
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I like this stuff, it's good.
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I know, that's really good.
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That's why I wanna include the link to it.
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It's not just somebody who's like,
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"Yeah, I'm gonna post something."
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Like, I'm really impressed by the quality of this poetry.
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I could not do this.
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I played around with poetry at one point.
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There is a reason I don't publish it anywhere.
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(laughs)
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I don't ever plan to do this.
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Go Roger, well done.
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So next one here, speaking of MaxTock,
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and I just threw this on here,
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so I'm kinda putting you on the spot.
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You are putting me on the spot,
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I realize this as I'm finishing up
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this conversation on Roger.
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Oh, Mike threw this in here, okay.
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Yeah, so we were at MaxTock
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and I spoke at MaxTock
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and I gave a deeper dive,
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both of them on the topic of email.
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And since we talked about email
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multiple times on Bookworm,
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I feel like we have to have at least one takeaway
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that you got from either of my talks at MaxTock.
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So here's the thing I got.
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There's, I will tell you,
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there's one big thing that's made a pretty big impact
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on my email habits,
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because I get a lot of email.
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We've talked about this before.
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I did some things,
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it cut back on my email,
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then I did some more client work
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and got more into that,
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which means my email started to get heavy again.
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So despite all of my work to make sure email
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doesn't bombard me,
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I'm still bombarded by email.
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So I have learned that I can't say that I like email,
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I really don't like going through email,
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I don't like the process of processing it
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to use the same word twice there.
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But I do know that there's a very specific pattern
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that you should go through when you're doing email.
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And whenever I listen to you,
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my talk about email flow and how all that should work,
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I have followed that for a long time.
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So it's great to have the confirmation
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that I'm doing the right thing
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from an Asian efficiency professional here.
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- Comformation bias.
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- There you go.
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So I really appreciated the confirmation piece there,
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'cause I feel better about myself,
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'cause that's the way our cognitive biases work.
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But in the process,
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one of the things that you mentioned offhand, I think,
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'cause you didn't really dive into it
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and much detail was the inverse sorting,
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so that you've got the oldest at the top.
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And it seems like a lot of people don't do this.
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I have wanted to do this for a long time,
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but I've used Gmail for a long time.
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And I talked about a few episodes ago now on WIMS@Work
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that I moved away from Gmail over to Apple Mail,
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which a lot of people really didn't like
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and sent me emails about,
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which is great and interesting at the same time,
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because, okay, so long story short,
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the only reason I made that shift was because of Touch Bar,
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which I know a lot of people don't care for, love it,
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so you guys can just, you send me the Haiti Mail
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if you want on that, I still like Touch Bar,
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you're not gonna convince me otherwise.
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But I realized in the process of using Apple Mail
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as compared to, as the in conjunction with Touch Bar
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that it works a lot like Gmail with the single keystrokes.
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You can set up the Touch Bar in order to enable that functionality.
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Well, I was considering a move to Mailmate per mic,
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and I downloaded Mailmate, I was trying it
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'cause it's the one that Mike likes to use,
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and I figured if Mike is using it, hmm,
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maybe I should consider this,
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but I didn't follow through with that, Mike,
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so that's not the one thing,
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but it did at least prompt me to explore Apple Mail a little bit,
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and I realized you can inverse sort in Apple Mail now.
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I did not know that until I started trying to figure out
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how I could do it, and it's built in.
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I just had to turn it on.
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Nice.
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So I did do that, and it means the old stuff showed up at the top,
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and I didn't realize that I was holding things in my inbox,
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so between those two, I'm getting better at email, Mike,
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so thank you for that.
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Sweet, one step at a time.
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So there you go, there's my one thing from MaxDoc
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from your talk, well done, sir.
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Now, I should point out, Mike did something at MaxDoc
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that kind of caught some people off guard,
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because when you're giving talks,
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especially about Mac computers,
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it's very tempting to want to do like a live demonstration
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of a specific application,
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and a few people tried to do this.
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Some of that is dependent on getting a good Wi-Fi signal,
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which there were issues with this year at MaxDoc,
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and it has a lot of problems
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if you try to just play a recorded video.
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So if you're giving a talk
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and you're going to do something like a live demo,
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you need to do something like what Mike did,
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which was to record the demo as a screencast,
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and then break said screencast up into little bits
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such that you can advance it as you want.
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Mike did a very good job with this, well done, sir.
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So it was very interesting to watch
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because you were able to take that,
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what would have been a very difficult screencast
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to do a voice over on live and get it to work perfectly.
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I know there were a few people that boasted
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about this afterwards, Mike, that were sitting there.
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They missed out on like what you were talking about
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with email because they were so caught up
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and how is he doing that?
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Like that is, what is he doing?
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So yeah, there was a few folks that were very impressed
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and I was too, so well done.
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Cool, yeah, just a little bit more description, I guess,
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on exactly what I did for anyone who wants
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to steal the strategy.
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Like Jodit said, I recorded the video on screen flow
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of like getting notifications, things like that,
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and then I cut it up into tiny videos
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and then placed those videos in a keynote presentation
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on separate slides, which autoplayed
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when you loaded the slide.
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So that meant that while I was presenting,
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I didn't have to be at my computer even.
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I had the clicker and every time I hit the forward arrow
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on the clicker or the forward button on the clicker,
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then it would play the next piece,
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but on the screen behind me, it just showed my screen.
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And so it would hold the last frame of the video,
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my mouse in a certain position,
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and then I'd pick up the video there on the next one.
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And it looked like I was controlling everything
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with the clicker, but I wasn't.
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I was just playing a bunch of little videos
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with the spacing so that I could narrate over them.
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Does that, does that make sense?
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- It makes sense to me, but I got to see it behind the scenes.
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So that happens, but it was interesting.
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I hadn't thought to do something like that.
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I don't do screencasts live like that really ever,
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but if I ever need to, you can be sure I'm stealing this one.
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- Yeah, so what that allowed me to do is like,
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there's one spot in particular where I wanted a notification
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to play at the exact right time with the sound,
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and I was able to trigger that with the clicker
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rather than sending the email and waiting
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sometimes five seconds, sometimes five minutes
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for the email to show up and then the notification to play
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and having to sit there be like,
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okay, just wait for it, wait for it.
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- Yeah, and that was the piece that really confused people
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because they were like, how did he,
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'cause there were a couple of folks that thought
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you were actually doing the live demo,
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and they could not figure out how you had triggered
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the notification to come exactly when you wanted.
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There was a few folks in front of me that were like,
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look at each other, like, what?
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They were so confused, it was great.
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- That's funny.
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- So that was Max Talk, I enjoyed it.
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It was a good time, I like Max Talk.
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- And if you like Max or Apple Things,
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you should come to Max Talk next year, dear listener.
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- And we can hang out, like we can meet each other,
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it'd be fun.
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We'll talk about books at a max conference.
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(laughing)
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- All right, then I've got a whole bunch here.
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- Yeah.
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- You're not gonna be able to hold me accountable too
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because I don't know how to quantify these necessarily.
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I'm not tracking every time I don't use a power base, no.
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(laughing)
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But just running through these real quickly,
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these are the things I wrote down from last time.
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I wanted to show respect to other people before responding.
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I wanted to not use power base nose.
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I wanted to not use nose without proposing a yes.
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I wanted to use positive framing when proposing a yes.
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And I wanted to use, I would prefer not to.
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So I can tell you that progress has been made,
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but I can also tell you that I have not used
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I would prefer not to yet.
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And that probably means that I'm not saying no enough,
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but I don't know that for sure.
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I feel like in the last couple weeks,
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even couple months, I've done a pretty decent job
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of editing the things that I am committed to
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and the things that I am doing now really are the right things.
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And so I kind of think that partly this has kind of been
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set in motion before we read this book.
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And so I haven't had the opportunity to use these
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in practice as much as I maybe would have, you know,
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six months ago.
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But yeah, I do think that my mindset has shifted specifically
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the one about showing respect to other people before responding.
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Like that one really hit me.
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And I try to every single request that I get
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have that different mindset where it's not just like,
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well, no, I can't do that.
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Example, the other day, I'm in Door County.
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So I am two hours from home and I got a text message
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from somebody who isn't necessarily like a really close friend,
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kind of an acquaintance.
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It goes to my church, like we're friends,
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but we don't hang out, that sort of thing.
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And he was asking if he could get a ride down to Oshkosh.
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And it'd be real easy for me to just be like,
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well, no, I'm not around.
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Sorry.
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But I caught myself, I shouldn't even say I caught myself.
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I noticed that like I approached that text message
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different than I would have in the past.
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Like, I honestly felt for this guy and was trying to figure out
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a way that like, oh, do I know anybody in the Appleton area
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that could give this guy a ride down to Oshkosh.
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And so I consider that a win, even though from his perspective,
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I wasn't able to help him out.
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Right.
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I think that over time, like there are going to be definitely
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more positive outcomes from this.
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Yeah, I can see that there's a lot of value in thinking
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through how do I deliver a no in a good way.
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I do it with clients all the time.
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I kind of hate doing it with clients all the time,
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but it's a good thing to do it with clients all the time.
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So like, OK, I need to make sure that they know one,
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that I'm trying to help them.
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Two, I'm the wrong person to help them.
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And three, where they should go from there, which is exactly
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what my follow up was, is trying to use the yes, no, yes.
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Every time a big decision needs a no.
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And it's something I have found is most important in my client
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relationships whenever I need to tell them no on a specific thing,
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like take, for example, I have one in particular right now
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that wants-- and I don't know why certain people do this.
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They want to dictate the way that I'm storing data
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for their plugin, for say, discourse.
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And if they want that level of detail,
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I typically need to find a very strong way to say, no,
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I do this for a living.
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I know what I'm talking about.
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This is the way it should happen.
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I'm a discourse expert.
00:18:43
Yes, I am a professional at this.
00:18:46
Please stop arguing with me on this.
00:18:48
Unless you are one of the top data analysts in the world,
00:18:50
you should not be arguing with me on this.
00:18:53
And if you're one of the top data analysts in the world,
00:18:55
you are likely not going to employ my services in this scenario.
00:18:59
You would simply do it yourself.
00:19:01
So let's say no here.
00:19:05
Right.
00:19:05
Those are entertaining conversations.
00:19:07
Yeah, I feel like if I was still doing client work,
00:19:09
I would probably have a lot more opportunities
00:19:11
to practice this stuff.
00:19:12
But I'm glad that I'm not.
00:19:14
I can pass them on to you if you want.
00:19:16
I'm good.
00:19:17
You could pose as my admin that says no.
00:19:21
I will pass.
00:19:22
But thanks.
00:19:24
I'd prefer not to jump.
00:19:25
Just do.
00:19:27
There you go.
00:19:30
All right, we've been alluding to our book for the day.
00:19:32
Why don't you introduce it for us?
00:19:33
Sure.
00:19:34
This is The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf DeBelly.
00:19:37
And I probably slaughtered that name and I apologize.
00:19:40
But this is a book all about cognitive biases.
00:19:44
And it's really laid out, interestingly,
00:19:46
because every chapter, I think, is exactly three pages.
00:19:50
I don't think I saw one that was longer when that was short.
00:19:53
Right.
00:19:53
They're like two and a half, three every single time.
00:19:56
Yep.
00:19:56
But there are 100 mini chapters, each one covering
00:20:00
a different cognitive bias.
00:20:03
And so in this episode, what we're going to do
00:20:05
is something a little bit different.
00:20:06
We're not going to try and encapsulate
00:20:07
the thoughts of the entire book, because it's impossible to do.
00:20:12
We're also not going to go through all the cognitive bias.
00:20:14
We're truly biased.
00:20:16
Like, everything is biased.
00:20:17
I can't control anything.
00:20:19
Yep, exactly.
00:20:21
So we're not going to go through all 99 of them either.
00:20:24
We're going to pick some of our favorites.
00:20:26
And then you've got a couple--
00:20:28
or actually one specific talking point, which
00:20:30
was something that I was thinking about the entire time also,
00:20:33
is like, where is the line of the ethical use of these biases
00:20:36
when it comes to selling and marketing?
00:20:38
And that is maybe a niche discussion
00:20:43
off of this general topic of cognitive biases.
00:20:45
But given what we do for a living,
00:20:49
I think it's very important.
00:20:51
Well, it was interesting to me that going through this,
00:20:56
I work with clients and I work on my own projects.
00:20:59
And 99% of the time, that is all online business-ish.
00:21:06
The 1% is cases where I'm helping someone set up
00:21:08
like a point of sale system in their brick and mortar.
00:21:13
So I could not help.
00:21:16
Every time a new bias was introduced,
00:21:20
I could not help but see that bias being exploited
00:21:24
in certain areas of business or online marketing
00:21:28
in some form or another.
00:21:30
It seems like almost every single one of these
00:21:32
has a form of extortion of sorts put into it
00:21:37
in order to get people to buy.
00:21:39
And the question I have-- and we can get into it either now
00:21:43
or later.
00:21:43
It doesn't matter to me, Mike.
00:21:45
I felt like it would be very easy to sell a lot of things
00:21:49
if you employ like five or six of these.
00:21:52
In your online business, you could
00:21:53
sell as much as you want every single day.
00:21:57
Question is, should you do that?
00:22:01
Personally, I feel like the answer is no.
00:22:03
But at what point-- because it's almost impossible to market
00:22:07
without doing something here.
00:22:08
So what do you do?
00:22:12
Yeah, this is a very, very interesting question.
00:22:14
And I'm sure that there's going to be people
00:22:16
on both sides of this argument.
00:22:21
In the-- OK, so there was a book that I read a while back,
00:22:24
which kind of changed my opinion and perspective
00:22:27
on this topic.
00:22:28
And that is "Influence" by Robert Sealdini.
00:22:32
Have you read that one?
00:22:33
I have not, but it's on my list.
00:22:35
OK, so this is often referred to as the marketing Bible.
00:22:40
And what it talks about is seven specific marketing
00:22:44
strategies which are wrapped up in these cognitive biases.
00:22:48
And he explains how they work and then also
00:22:51
how to combat them.
00:22:53
And so he uses stories in that book
00:22:55
of people who are trying to use these marketing tactics
00:22:59
or cognitive biases against him and how he spun them around.
00:23:05
And I think that when it comes to these cognitive biases
00:23:09
and the marketing strategies that you would use
00:23:11
to either play-- to play off of these, what really--
00:23:16
the really the fine line here is in what are you actually
00:23:21
promoting?
00:23:21
What are you selling?
00:23:23
If you are marketing junk, if you are marketing
00:23:26
a pyramid scheme, which actually was referred to specifically
00:23:30
in one of these cognitive biases,
00:23:33
if you know that the thing that you are selling
00:23:36
is not the thing that the person needs,
00:23:40
then I think that, yeah, there's definitely
00:23:43
a lot of opportunity to use these in a negative way.
00:23:47
I think if you are honest, it is fine to use story
00:23:51
to sell your product.
00:23:53
Story bias is one of the biases.
00:23:55
You don't want to manipulate people
00:23:57
and you don't want to play to their fears necessarily,
00:24:02
but you want to give people an opportunity
00:24:05
to buy the thing that you've created
00:24:07
if you really think it is going to help them.
00:24:10
And so I think, obviously, there's
00:24:12
some gray area there between what is a legit product
00:24:15
and what is a junk product that you're just trying to sell
00:24:18
because you want to make a bunch of money.
00:24:20
But I think that that is really the distinction
00:24:23
between when this is OK and when it's not.
00:24:26
Really, it comes down to, do you trust the person
00:24:28
that you're buying from?
00:24:30
If you trust the person that you're buying from,
00:24:32
then the cognitive biases that play into this,
00:24:35
that is, in my opinion, that's OK to a certain degree.
00:24:39
They might be using different strategies, different tactics.
00:24:41
That's OK if you trust that they really
00:24:43
do have your best interests at heart.
00:24:44
Like if you align with their core values,
00:24:47
you can trust the end result of the product
00:24:49
that they're selling.
00:24:50
So an example of this would be Apple
00:24:53
stands on privacy versus somebody like Google
00:24:55
stands on privacy.
00:24:58
I will spend a bunch of money on Apple products
00:25:01
because I align with the company's values and vision.
00:25:04
And I believe them when they say that they're not
00:25:07
going to sell my data because that is important to me.
00:25:09
Now, there are lots of other people
00:25:10
who are like, I don't care.
00:25:11
I got nothing to hide.
00:25:12
Go ahead and sell my data as long as I get Gmail for free.
00:25:15
That's fine.
00:25:16
But you have to recognize that both of those products
00:25:19
are being marketed using these cognitive biases.
00:25:22
And that's going to taint how you view the company based
00:25:25
on your values and your vision.
00:25:27
So I personally don't like the fact
00:25:30
that my mail is being read through.
00:25:32
So when I see Google using those cognitive biases against me,
00:25:36
I'm going to think, oh, those jerks, what the heck are they doing?
00:25:39
But when I see Apple do it, it's not a big deal if that makes sense.
00:25:45
Because your biases towards their motivation.
00:25:48
Like you're trusting them simply because you
00:25:52
know that they have a core value of letting you keep your own data
00:25:57
and not using it for their own purposes.
00:25:59
So because you buy into that, it's
00:26:01
OK if they do something that is either very similar to or at least
00:26:06
along the same lines of what Google does.
00:26:09
So you tend to be OK with that.
00:26:12
I think I tend to fall into a lot of the same category there.
00:26:15
The question is that if I look at how
00:26:19
I market certain websites of my own,
00:26:22
even take like Bookworm, how do you want to market that?
00:26:25
Well, we don't really market it at all.
00:26:28
We just kind of let it grow on its own.
00:26:30
And we let people share it with their friends
00:26:32
and let it grow that way.
00:26:34
We don't really do a lot of marketing per se.
00:26:38
We tend to do the whole word of mouth thing, which
00:26:42
has kind of its own bias in it as well,
00:26:44
because you're taking advantage of the friendship side of things,
00:26:47
letting story play into it.
00:26:50
But at the same time, I would like it to grow more, of course,
00:26:55
like who wouldn't, right?
00:26:57
So if you want it to grow more, then what do you do about it?
00:27:00
And that's something that I have been struggling with,
00:27:03
specifically with my business as a whole.
00:27:05
It's something I've talked about on theoretical a number
00:27:07
of times, and I'm working through over the next couple
00:27:09
of months in a week or so and trying to figure out, well,
00:27:13
what is the right way to market without exploiting
00:27:16
some of these things?
00:27:17
Because there's some of them, like you mentioned the story
00:27:19
bias.
00:27:21
I like telling stories about how something has helped me.
00:27:25
I like doing that.
00:27:27
And I feel like that's a way for me to convey something
00:27:29
to the folks who follow me so that they can see,
00:27:35
this is what I struggle with.
00:27:36
This is how I work through things.
00:27:37
This is something I'm trying to nail down.
00:27:40
But the trick comes in whenever I feel that the intent behind
00:27:46
that story is to try to get a sale.
00:27:48
I think part of this is what's the purpose?
00:27:51
Like what's your underlying intent of said marketing
00:27:55
strategy, which is darn near impossible to drag out
00:28:02
of somebody else.
00:28:02
Like you can never nail down what someone else's intent is.
00:28:06
But you can see what their actions are
00:28:08
and try to extrapolate out to it.
00:28:10
But you have to be careful with that because there's a bias
00:28:12
that comes with that one as well.
00:28:13
So this is kind of the slippery slope of, OK, well,
00:28:16
this bias and that bias.
00:28:17
And if I try to do this, well, then what about that?
00:28:20
It can get to be a bit fatalistic almost,
00:28:23
where there's not an answer here.
00:28:25
So just do nothing, which I think
00:28:28
I have fallen into even that trap in the fence.
00:28:32
Yeah, I don't think you can judge other people's motives
00:28:35
necessarily, but you can judge the thing
00:28:37
that they are trying to sell.
00:28:39
And you can say that you're selling this thing for X amount
00:28:42
of dollars.
00:28:43
It's really only worth this amount of dollars because of X.
00:28:48
And obviously even the value judgments
00:28:51
are going to be different.
00:28:52
But there's definitely going to be times
00:28:53
where you can identify that the product that is being sold
00:28:58
or marketed isn't being sold or marketed honestly.
00:29:03
And so it really comes down to the integrity
00:29:06
and the character of the marketer, in my opinion.
00:29:10
We used Apple and Google as an example.
00:29:13
But you mentioned the online space.
00:29:14
Like there's a lot of people selling stuff in the online space.
00:29:18
And I think that whether you trust the person or not
00:29:21
really comes down to what does the person stand for.
00:29:24
And is it in line with your core values, which
00:29:27
is probably one of these kind of biases to begin with.
00:29:33
But I think that there are definitely certain things
00:29:36
that you can just say, like, yeah, that's really not worth it.
00:29:38
That is a scam in essence.
00:29:41
But I do think that those are few and far between.
00:29:44
And I also think that from the Joe Buleg perspective
00:29:48
and you're talking about, how do I--
00:29:50
I want Bookworm to Grow, what my business to grow.
00:29:53
But I also don't want to be a sleazy marketer guy.
00:29:56
I don't think that there is anything wrong with being
00:29:59
marketer guy.
00:29:59
You don't have to be sleazy.
00:30:01
But you can definitely tell stories.
00:30:03
And framing is another one of these cognitive biases.
00:30:07
You can frame your offering in a positive way.
00:30:09
There's nothing immoral about that.
00:30:12
And in fact, when you do that, it opens the door for you
00:30:16
to actually help people.
00:30:17
I think the intention is really important.
00:30:19
Like, if you are in the productivity space,
00:30:24
you are either capitalizing on the audience,
00:30:28
and you're just trying to make a quick buck,
00:30:30
or you are honestly trying to help people do more with what
00:30:34
they have been given and do the right things, maybe not even
00:30:36
do more, but make sure that what they're doing
00:30:38
is the right things.
00:30:40
And I think there's a lot of people
00:30:41
in this space who that is their intention.
00:30:43
They do want to help people.
00:30:46
And I think that comes through in how you market.
00:30:49
It's almost like you can, in my opinion, anyways,
00:30:52
like you can kind of smell a phony if you do any amount
00:30:56
of research or digging.
00:30:58
Like, you can see pretty quickly when something is fake.
00:31:03
You go on Amazon and you search for something,
00:31:06
and you get the real product at $300,
00:31:10
and you get all the knockoffs at $15.
00:31:12
You know that those aren't going to meet your needs.
00:31:14
Right.
00:31:16
And I think there's something to that,
00:31:18
because so many of these online businesses,
00:31:22
they want to use a lot of these tactics.
00:31:25
They want to frame things in a certain way,
00:31:26
even though they don't necessarily--
00:31:29
like, it's a sales thing.
00:31:30
It's not a integrity thing.
00:31:33
If you get the difference between those two in that case,
00:31:36
because they're trying to get a sale, as opposed
00:31:38
to trying to accomplish something for that person.
00:31:41
I think this is where, like, personally--
00:31:44
and I can see this because I'm me.
00:31:46
This is even a bias.
00:31:47
But I feel like whenever I'm trying to do some of this marketing
00:31:51
and I'm trying to share certain things,
00:31:53
I'm genuinely trying to find a way to get things out to people
00:31:56
because I think it can help them.
00:31:57
Like, just hearing the struggles that I'm going through,
00:32:00
because this is kind of my take on the productivity space,
00:32:02
is trying to share what I'm going through
00:32:05
and what I'm struggling through,
00:32:06
the things I'm working through from a nap or a services
00:32:10
standpoint.
00:32:12
I feel like that's a way to help people with it
00:32:15
because they can see my way of working through it.
00:32:19
And if they can understand my mindset
00:32:21
on how I've got to where I'm at, my hope is that they can take that
00:32:24
and then grow from it and nail it down from--
00:32:28
nail their own system down using that as a base.
00:32:31
And that's OK.
00:32:33
I think to try to genuinely find a way to share your own story
00:32:37
so that it helps other people work through their own,
00:32:40
I think it's also very easy to use that and say that I'm
00:32:44
going to do this because it's a good way to sell
00:32:48
and people tend to trust you if you do this.
00:32:51
It's very easy to come across that way.
00:32:53
Like, some people, I'm sure, will interpret
00:32:55
what I'm doing in that way, even though that is far from my intent
00:32:59
and that's not what I'm doing.
00:33:00
I'm trying the best I can to show that I'm genuine in that.
00:33:03
And I think you would be the same, Mike.
00:33:05
You love to help people with their apps, with their tools,
00:33:10
with their time, email.
00:33:11
I mean, you love helping people in the same way.
00:33:14
I think you would say the same.
00:33:15
You genuinely love helping people.
00:33:16
The trick is how do you convey that without crossing
00:33:21
these lines, whatever those lines are?
00:33:24
Right.
00:33:24
Well, I think that a big key to this
00:33:26
is in what sort of feedback people give you
00:33:30
after you've offered the assistance
00:33:32
or they've gone through the product.
00:33:34
So at Asian Efficiency, we're implementing
00:33:36
a net promoter score system.
00:33:38
And that is basically after you've gone through the product,
00:33:40
what do you think of it?
00:33:41
Did it help you?
00:33:43
Did it not help you?
00:33:44
And then if it didn't help you, like, if you're honest,
00:33:47
you're going to try to fix that so that it can actually
00:33:49
help the person.
00:33:50
In fact, if you implement MPS the right way,
00:33:53
you don't give up on that person until you've closed that loop
00:33:56
and they are happy.
00:33:57
And I think that if you actually track,
00:34:00
what do people think of the product itself?
00:34:01
And this is not the trolls and the haters who are sending you
00:34:04
emails saying that you should kill yourself
00:34:07
because I know that you get those.
00:34:08
You want some?
00:34:10
No, that's OK.
00:34:12
Those people, you don't want to try to win over.
00:34:14
There's always going to be people who take issue
00:34:15
with how you are promoting your product,
00:34:18
unless you don't promote your product and then they win.
00:34:20
But if you are promoting it and your product is good,
00:34:24
then if people go through the process
00:34:25
and they go through your product,
00:34:26
like those testimonials in essence,
00:34:28
like those should be generated automatically
00:34:31
as long as you follow up with the person.
00:34:33
I mean, they're not always going to come out and say,
00:34:34
yeah, this was great.
00:34:35
This changed my life.
00:34:36
But if you give them the opportunity to,
00:34:38
that can give you a baseline on whether you are actually helping
00:34:42
people or you've transitioned into sleazy marketing guy.
00:34:45
Because I think the key there is,
00:34:48
what do you do with that negative feedback?
00:34:50
Do you actually change?
00:34:51
Do you try to improve it?
00:34:52
Or you just say, well, I got your money already,
00:34:54
so I don't care.
00:34:56
Yeah, I think that's tricky.
00:34:57
Kind of a side note on the troll thing.
00:34:59
I talked to somebody at max talk about trolls
00:35:03
as a side conversation and got this really cool idea
00:35:06
on how to respond to them.
00:35:07
This person told me that he likes to send a lorum.
00:35:12
Lorum Ipsum to trolls.
00:35:15
So he gets the troll telling him his product is junk.
00:35:19
And he has, you know, I have, as a web developer,
00:35:23
I've got these text expander snippets that have lorums.
00:35:27
And for those of you who don't know, a lorum Ipsum
00:35:29
is essentially, it's Latin text and it's just nonsense to us.
00:35:34
So it's just this long text,
00:35:37
it's just this long text that has a way
00:35:39
of just filling in paragraphs.
00:35:41
It's just a filler is all it is.
00:35:43
It doesn't mean anything.
00:35:44
There's nothing in it.
00:35:45
Like it's not meant to be read, it just fills space.
00:35:48
And this guy likes to send those to trolls
00:35:52
and they get so confused because they think
00:35:54
you buried something in there for them to read
00:35:58
and they pour through it and they sometimes find patterns
00:36:01
that don't exist, which is another bias that's in here.
00:36:04
It's very entertaining to get some of their pies.
00:36:07
Now he did tell me that you have to be careful with that
00:36:09
because they will send you a whole bunch of emails
00:36:10
and follow up trying to figure out what you were telling them.
00:36:12
So you'd feel okay with that.
00:36:14
- Interesting.
00:36:16
Yeah.
00:36:17
I can see where that would just drive some people nuts
00:36:19
and why you might want to do that.
00:36:22
But I think ultimately the long term
00:36:24
that maybe isn't helping.
00:36:25
- No, it's not at all.
00:36:26
It's purely entertainment value at that point.
00:36:28
So it's not something I plan to do.
00:36:31
So for a while I was just sending blank emails to them
00:36:35
which confused them as well.
00:36:37
Like wait, did he mean to send a blank email?
00:36:40
What did he forget to type it in?
00:36:41
Like it really confused them
00:36:42
but it just meant more email.
00:36:43
So I stopped doing that.
00:36:45
- Do you want to talk about some of the biases themselves?
00:36:53
I mean, we talked a lot about them generally
00:36:56
but we'll be diving into some specific ones.
00:36:59
- I think we've talked around this ethical use of them thing.
00:37:03
I don't, we're not going to come up with an answer here.
00:37:05
I think if you could nail down an answer,
00:37:07
a lot of people would be excited
00:37:08
and then they would exploit your answer to get something.
00:37:11
So I don't think you're going to nail,
00:37:13
I think it's going to be something
00:37:15
that we each have to nail down how we want to go
00:37:19
about doing marketing in an honest and integrity filled way
00:37:24
so that people are genuinely excited
00:37:26
about the things we're creating
00:37:28
and they're happy with the way that we sold them on it.
00:37:30
So I don't think we need to go over that anymore.
00:37:34
So I'm good with jumping into the next one
00:37:36
which is three biases to which were most susceptible.
00:37:40
So that means we get to talk about some of these Mike.
00:37:43
- Picking three out of these 99 is going to be
00:37:46
maybe pretty difficult but we'll give it a shot.
00:37:50
- That's why I wrote down that we're most susceptible to,
00:37:55
not three that were susceptible to
00:37:57
because I felt like I was susceptible
00:37:59
to like all of them in some way.
00:38:01
- Yep, that's terrible.
00:38:02
- I think Rolf de Belly would agree
00:38:04
that these all come into play at some point.
00:38:08
But yeah, let's dive in here.
00:38:10
Do you have a clear winner?
00:38:14
- I don't have a clear winner.
00:38:16
I've got three written down.
00:38:18
How about this?
00:38:19
We'll just alternate, go back and forth.
00:38:21
So one of them that I know that I'm susceptible to,
00:38:24
I don't have, like I didn't rank these
00:38:27
but one of them I wrote down is what's called
00:38:29
the gambler's fallacy.
00:38:31
So it's the concept that if something is happening
00:38:35
repetitively and the example that he gave in the book was,
00:38:40
what was the game?
00:38:40
I'm terrible at gambler's games.
00:38:43
- Roulette, I think.
00:38:44
- Was it Roulette?
00:38:46
- Pretty sure because it had been a certain color
00:38:49
so many times in a row so people kept betting
00:38:51
on the other color thinking,
00:38:52
"Oh, it's gonna be the other color this time."
00:38:54
And it never was.
00:38:55
- Right, so they're at a Roulette table
00:38:57
and the ball kept landing on black
00:39:01
and it landed 20 times in a row on black
00:39:04
and people started betting on red like crazy
00:39:07
because it has to eventually go red
00:39:11
and a lot of people lost millions of dollars
00:39:13
on betting on red and it kept landing on black
00:39:17
and it didn't actually go to red until the 27th spin.
00:39:21
So at that point there was a lot of money on the table
00:39:24
and a lot of people went bankrupt.
00:39:26
So the concept there is that if something is happening
00:39:30
repeatedly you tend to expect the opposite to happen
00:39:35
very quickly or right away because it can't just keep
00:39:39
going in that line forever.
00:39:42
So in that particular case, every single role,
00:39:46
it has a 50/50 chance of black over red.
00:39:50
Even though it's been 20 times on black,
00:39:52
it's still 50/50 on roll 21.
00:39:55
But we tend to think that, "Oh no, it has to be like 90/10.
00:39:59
"It's gonna land on red because it's been black
00:40:01
"so many times."
00:40:02
It doesn't actually matter.
00:40:04
It doesn't, the probability that it doesn't work out.
00:40:06
It's still 50/50 every single time.
00:40:09
We just don't like to think that way.
00:40:10
And this is something that I know I fall into.
00:40:12
I know there have been cases where I've had a handful
00:40:16
of rough client projects.
00:40:18
Surely the next one's going to be good
00:40:20
because I've had so many bad ones.
00:40:22
It has to balance out some time.
00:40:24
Oh no, it doesn't actually work that way.
00:40:27
So this is one that I know I need to make myself familiar
00:40:30
with and be okay not falling into.
00:40:33
- Yeah, and this is interesting because it basically
00:40:37
works against another cognitive bias,
00:40:40
which is the regression to mean error.
00:40:43
And he used the example there of somebody
00:40:45
who their back pain went away after they visited
00:40:48
a chiropractor or their golf game got better
00:40:51
after they visited a professional.
00:40:54
And his point with the regression to mean
00:40:56
is that it would have improved on its own
00:40:57
because these things tend to average out.
00:41:00
But with the gambler's fallacy, that doesn't work
00:41:03
because there is no balancing force in the universe.
00:41:06
So like when you're playing roulette
00:41:09
or when you're flipping a coin, for example,
00:41:10
there's nothing that says it has to be this
00:41:13
a bunch of times in a row in order to make this balanced
00:41:17
like for example, a system like the weather.
00:41:21
And this was really, really interesting
00:41:23
because this was on my list too.
00:41:25
So I have to pick a different one now.
00:41:26
(laughs)
00:41:28
I know that I've fallen into this
00:41:30
where you see something happen a bunch of times in a row
00:41:32
and you're like, oh well, it's probably going to be
00:41:34
the other one now.
00:41:35
But what you just said is that like if you flip a coin
00:41:37
10 times and it's had 10 times in a row the next time
00:41:40
and it's still got that 50% chance
00:41:43
of being had 50% chance of being tails.
00:41:46
That kind of boggles my mind.
00:41:48
It's not the way my mind works.
00:41:51
So yeah, I definitely believe that I am susceptible
00:41:53
to this one as well.
00:41:54
- Yeah.
00:41:55
And because our mind doesn't work that way,
00:41:57
we just expect like the probability of it happening
00:42:00
that many times in a row has to be different
00:42:02
than 50/50 on the next roll.
00:42:04
Like it just has to.
00:42:05
Like it's a mathematical thing, but it's not.
00:42:08
(laughs)
00:42:09
It's purely 50/50.
00:42:11
Okay.
00:42:13
So this one was on your list too.
00:42:14
So that mean I have to go again?
00:42:16
- No, no, I'll pick one.
00:42:17
- Okay, you go next.
00:42:19
- Okay, so this one I've known about for a really long time.
00:42:22
I still find myself falling for this though
00:42:26
and that is the planning fallacy
00:42:28
where we tend to underestimate how long
00:42:31
projects are going to take.
00:42:34
And the point behind this one is that there really is
00:42:37
no learning curve for us when it comes to planning,
00:42:41
which again seems counterintuitive.
00:42:45
Seems like we should be able to learn that,
00:42:47
you know, last time I did this project,
00:42:48
it took this many hours.
00:42:49
So next time I do this project,
00:42:50
it's gonna take that many hours.
00:42:53
It's not going to be less than that
00:42:55
because things are never gonna go
00:42:57
exactly the way that they're supposed to.
00:42:59
But I am ashamed to admit that I fall for this more often
00:43:02
than I probably should.
00:43:04
The example that they use here,
00:43:06
I thought was really interesting.
00:43:08
That's the Sydney Opera House, which was built in 1957.
00:43:12
And they projected that this is gonna be done in 1963
00:43:17
for $7 million.
00:43:19
It was actually completed in 1973
00:43:21
and the total cost was $102 million.
00:43:24
Even people who do this, like for a living,
00:43:27
they suck at this as well.
00:43:30
- Makes me feel a little better.
00:43:32
- Yep, yep.
00:43:33
- Yeah, I know that it's something that,
00:43:35
and you know, let's go task management here.
00:43:37
I have played around with the estimated time thing
00:43:40
and I'm gonna focus a few times
00:43:43
and I've dabbled with it even here recently,
00:43:46
trying to figure out if I could find a way
00:43:48
to calculate how much time I'm spending on certain things
00:43:51
or trying to get a feel for how much I can do in a day.
00:43:55
But it's so hard to nail down
00:43:57
how much time something's gonna take.
00:43:58
My typical method of doing that is knowing
00:44:02
that I think something's going to take me 15 minutes
00:44:04
so I set aside 45 for it.
00:44:06
Like that's the best way I can do it.
00:44:09
But even then I sometimes am off,
00:44:11
but yeah, I know that I'm terrible at this as well.
00:44:14
- Yeah, actually this is interesting.
00:44:16
We just had a scrum meeting this week
00:44:19
for Asian efficiency and Marmal just got back
00:44:22
from scrum leaders training, forget exactly what it was.
00:44:26
But one of the things that they said was
00:44:28
you do your, they call it planning poker
00:44:30
where you kind of identify how many story points
00:44:33
something is gonna be and then you bump it up one.
00:44:36
So if you were to say like this is gonna be
00:44:40
in the way that the story points work in scrum,
00:44:42
it's the Fibonacci number sequence.
00:44:44
So the number of story points is equal
00:44:46
to the sum of the previous two.
00:44:48
So it goes one, then two, then three
00:44:50
because three is the sum of one plus two
00:44:52
but then the next one is five
00:44:53
because it's three plus two.
00:44:55
The next one is eight, five plus three, 13, 21, whatever.
00:44:58
So that means that if the Asian efficiency team
00:45:01
is planning our sprint and we say this issue
00:45:04
is gonna take 13 story points, everybody agree?
00:45:06
Yes, we don't leave it at 13, we bump it up to 21
00:45:09
which is actually a much, much larger estimate.
00:45:13
- Right, interesting.
00:45:15
Yeah, I've just, yeah.
00:45:17
It makes a lot of sense to bump things up
00:45:19
from where you think they should be.
00:45:21
All right, so another one on my list here
00:45:24
of ones that I know I'm susceptible to
00:45:26
is the self-serving bias.
00:45:29
So essentially if something goes well,
00:45:34
say I build a new product, I create a new website,
00:45:38
I launch said website and it's a success,
00:45:41
I will attribute that success to my own professional prowess
00:45:46
and how great I am (laughs)
00:45:48
at building websites.
00:45:49
I will say that that's something I did.
00:45:52
If it goes badly, I tend to assume
00:45:56
that it's because I hit the timing wrong
00:45:59
or the technology was not working the way it should.
00:46:03
It's something external, it's not my fault.
00:46:06
So I like to take credit for the successes
00:46:08
and pass the blame to the failures, to something else.
00:46:11
Not usually to other people,
00:46:12
usually to other circumstances in my case,
00:46:15
but I like to make sure that things are self-serving.
00:46:17
And whenever I read this about the self-serving bias,
00:46:22
I wanted to stop reading.
00:46:24
(laughs)
00:46:25
It's like, I don't wanna know about this
00:46:27
'cause I know I do this.
00:46:28
- Yeah, a lot of these are kinda related and the self-serving bias.
00:46:34
Yeah, basically we attribute success to ourselves
00:46:43
and failure to other people.
00:46:46
I definitely can see that one applying to myself as well.
00:46:51
But it wasn't one of my top three,
00:46:53
so you didn't steal it from me.
00:46:54
(laughs)
00:46:55
- Okay, good.
00:46:56
All right, I'm having trouble picking these.
00:47:00
Man, there's so many.
00:47:01
Let's say availability bias,
00:47:04
where the availability bias is where we create a picture
00:47:08
of the world using the examples that most easily come to mind.
00:47:13
So I am aware of this and I know that I have done this,
00:47:17
but I've also taken steps to overcome this,
00:47:20
I believe, and that's one of the reasons, in my opinion,
00:47:23
why Bookworm is so important because when we read
00:47:25
these different books, we hear these different stories,
00:47:27
we get these different perspectives.
00:47:29
It causes us to rethink and reevaluate what we quote unquote,
00:47:32
no.
00:47:33
So we're in the examples of the availability bias
00:47:36
that they use in the book is the phrase,
00:47:38
smoking can't be bad for you because my grandma smokes every day
00:47:41
and she lived to be 100.
00:47:42
Okay, that's one data point.
00:47:45
But when you don't understand all,
00:47:49
when you don't really understand the information
00:47:50
that is available on a particular topic,
00:47:53
then you focus on that one data point and you're like,
00:47:55
oh, it's not so bad.
00:47:56
It can cause you to overestimate,
00:47:58
overestimate, for example, the chances of a plane
00:48:03
or a car crash or you underestimate the chances
00:48:05
of diabetes or cancer.
00:48:06
Most people are terrified, well, I shouldn't say most people,
00:48:09
there are a lot of people who are terrified
00:48:10
of getting on an airplane because they don't have
00:48:12
the control over the outcome, but it's actually much, much safer
00:48:17
than even getting in a car.
00:48:20
Likewise, a lot of people don't think about their life
00:48:25
or their mortality, I guess, don't wanna make this
00:48:27
a downer of an episode, but like, it is a very real possibility
00:48:32
that you could end up getting one of these diseases.
00:48:34
And in fact, it's much higher than you getting
00:48:37
in a plane crash, but that's where people's minds go
00:48:40
if they have this availability bias.
00:48:43
Because we prefer wrong information to know information.
00:48:48
Ignorance is not bliss.
00:48:51
And that's why, like I mentioned Bookworm,
00:48:54
the benefit of reading these books for me is that
00:48:58
it gives me a bigger mental toolbox, even if I don't,
00:49:03
even if I don't create these really elaborate notes
00:49:08
or mind maps, which for this one actually, it's pretty huge.
00:49:11
- I bet.
00:49:13
- If I don't go back and reread those things,
00:49:14
even if I don't internalize those things
00:49:16
where like I can spit back these statistics,
00:49:18
they do impact my overall view of a particular subject.
00:49:23
And it becomes a more informed point of view.
00:49:26
And I know we've talked about this before,
00:49:27
but I'm okay with the subconscious effect that that has
00:49:32
on my worldview without having to know all of the specific
00:49:36
points or all the specific ways that it has benefited me.
00:49:39
Does that make sense?
00:49:40
- It does, it does.
00:49:42
It's very similar to, and I'll get into this one
00:49:46
as far as one of them that fascinates us.
00:49:49
I'll get into that one here in a minute, but survivorship.
00:49:51
I'll just table that one.
00:49:54
We'll come back to that one here in a minute.
00:49:56
The last one on my list for,
00:49:58
'cause we've been three or three now.
00:50:01
- Two.
00:50:02
- You're most susceptible.
00:50:03
- Two, you started.
00:50:05
- Right, but you did the gamblers fallacy on top of me.
00:50:08
- True, I do have one more I wanna mention
00:50:10
because this is one that I definitely fall for.
00:50:14
- No, okay, all right, so you go ahead with that one.
00:50:17
- Okay, so my third one then is overthinking.
00:50:20
- What, you overthink things, Mike?
00:50:23
- Oh yeah, all the time.
00:50:25
And this is sort of related to the ambiguity aversion
00:50:30
because I wanna know things.
00:50:33
The things that I don't know freak me out.
00:50:35
But overthinking exactly what it sounds like,
00:50:39
you think too much and you cut off your mind
00:50:41
from the wisdom of your feelings.
00:50:43
The way that he framed this was really, really interesting
00:50:46
because we tend to think myself included,
00:50:49
we tend to think of emotions as bad things,
00:50:51
like the flight or fight response in the productivity space.
00:50:54
We talk about that and say like,
00:50:55
you need to escape that because those emotional decisions,
00:50:58
that's actually gonna lead to bad decisions.
00:51:00
You need to see the problem the right way.
00:51:02
Well, the way he framed it in this book,
00:51:05
the emotions that form in your brain,
00:51:07
they form the same way that the rational thoughts do.
00:51:10
And they're merely a different form of information.
00:51:14
So if you're making a decision based on collecting
00:51:17
all of the information and making the best decision,
00:51:19
you need to weigh that stuff.
00:51:21
And sometimes it needs to be weighed more
00:51:23
than the facts and the data that you collect.
00:51:28
And that's where I believe I fall into the overthinking thing
00:51:30
is I tend to do tons and tons of research,
00:51:34
give you an example, whenever I have to book my own flights,
00:51:37
I sit there and I look at flights for like two or three hours.
00:51:40
And I'm stressed out 'cause I'm like,
00:51:41
"I can't find the flight I want."
00:51:43
All of them leave at like six in the morning,
00:51:44
I gotta be at the airport at four.
00:51:46
I don't wanna do that.
00:51:48
And I've started working with an executive assistant
00:51:51
and that's one of the things that she does for me
00:51:52
is she books my flights whenever I need them
00:51:54
and she'll just go and she'll find them
00:51:55
and she's much better at it than I am
00:51:57
and she'll show me the flights and be like,
00:51:58
"Well, no, I prefer not to leave."
00:52:00
Or this layover right here, this is too short.
00:52:03
I gotta change plans, I'm gonna have to run across Chicago,
00:52:05
whatever, like that's a big load off of my brain,
00:52:10
I don't have to think about that stuff.
00:52:14
And when she presents the flights to me,
00:52:16
I can look at it and I can use my gut reaction,
00:52:19
my initial feeling on the thing,
00:52:21
like, yes, this is good, no, it is bad
00:52:23
instead of having to comb through all of the thousands
00:52:25
of flight options that are available that day.
00:52:28
And that really gets into like the very end of this,
00:52:30
which we can talk a little bit about it,
00:52:32
but just real briefly, what he says is that
00:52:36
there's a time to recognize all these cognitive biases
00:52:39
and overcome them.
00:52:40
And there's also a time when the decision
00:52:42
really doesn't matter that much to go with your gut
00:52:44
and to go with those emotional responses
00:52:47
because to go through the 99 point checklist
00:52:51
for every decision you make, including like,
00:52:53
where do you wanna go out to eat, that's ridiculous.
00:52:56
- Yes, to all the things.
00:53:02
- Yeah, there's a lot there, but I'm with you on,
00:53:05
you know, if you've got too many things available to you,
00:53:08
or you've got too many options,
00:53:10
which is another thing in here, you know,
00:53:12
if you've got too much to choose from,
00:53:15
it can be overwhelming and it gets hard
00:53:17
to actually make a decision.
00:53:19
This is why a lot of cases,
00:53:20
like if my wife and I are gonna go out for dinner or something,
00:53:23
it's not uncommon for me to pick two or three options
00:53:27
and then let her pick from that.
00:53:29
'Cause I can typically get it whittled down fairly quickly
00:53:33
and she's pretty good at making that final decision.
00:53:35
So I just know that sometimes this is better
00:53:37
for us to just work in that way.
00:53:39
Otherwise, it gets to be kind of a mess and takes forever.
00:53:44
I get you.
00:53:45
- I like that strategy.
00:53:46
I may have to employ that.
00:53:47
- Or work it the other way around,
00:53:50
let her filter it and you pick the final,
00:53:52
depending on how you do it.
00:53:53
- Yeah, you do it.
00:53:55
- The last one on my list of ones I'm susceptible to,
00:53:57
inability to close doors.
00:53:59
And I've gotten better at this one,
00:54:01
but essentially it is,
00:54:03
you think that everything just either needs a little more time
00:54:07
or that the next thing that's brought up
00:54:10
is potentially the big thing.
00:54:13
So in the world of online stuff,
00:54:16
I am currently a part of three podcasts.
00:54:18
I've got at least two fairly substantial website builds
00:54:22
that I'm going through right now that could become businesses.
00:54:25
And then I've got all my client stuff.
00:54:27
So I've got a ton of things going on.
00:54:29
And that's just the work I do for my own business.
00:54:33
There's also the stuff I do at the church.
00:54:35
There's also another commercial contractor client that I have.
00:54:38
Like there's a lot of these things that I do
00:54:42
that can very quickly overwhelm my time.
00:54:46
So I tend to see opportunities
00:54:48
and I want to say yes to them,
00:54:50
but that quickly leads me to having too many projects going on.
00:54:55
Thus we come back to Joe needs to use yes, no, yes more often
00:54:59
and continue saying no to things.
00:55:02
So I am in a place now where I know
00:55:05
that I can maintain what I'm currently doing.
00:55:07
I don't need to kill any of these things
00:55:09
that I'm working on right now,
00:55:11
but I sure need to stop saying yes to anything new for certain.
00:55:16
So I'm up against a brick wall on this one right now, Mike.
00:55:19
So I have to start saying no more often.
00:55:24
Nice.
00:55:25
Do you want to, I mean, we could definitely keep going
00:55:28
on the ones that were susceptible to.
00:55:31
There's a couple that I just wanted to talk about
00:55:33
because they were really interesting to me.
00:55:35
What do you want to do?
00:55:36
Do you want to keep talking about those?
00:55:37
I've got three that I'm fascinated by.
00:55:41
So I'll let you start this round.
00:55:44
Okay.
00:55:44
So I'll start with one that I am scared I am susceptible to.
00:55:48
And that is the chauffeur knowledge.
00:55:52
He uses the story of this world-renowned speaker
00:55:57
and he goes and he gives all these talks
00:55:59
and the chauffeur has heard the talk
00:56:01
over and over and over again.
00:56:02
So he floats this idea one time.
00:56:04
He's like, "Hey, I know your talk.
00:56:05
"Why don't you let me give it?"
00:56:06
And the expert's like, "Yeah, that sounds interesting."
00:56:10
And then he gets up and he gives the talk
00:56:12
and somebody asks him to question that he can't answer.
00:56:14
And he says, "That is such a simple question.
00:56:17
"I'm gonna let my chauffeur answer it."
00:56:19
And then he calls on the quote unquote chauffeur,
00:56:21
which is actually the expert to come on and take over.
00:56:25
But the point of the story is that
00:56:27
what you can recite doesn't necessarily mean that you know.
00:56:32
True experts recognize the limits of what they know
00:56:35
and what they don't know.
00:56:36
And he talks about the circle of confidence.
00:56:38
What lies inside your circle of confidence,
00:56:40
you kind of understand intuitively what lies outside.
00:56:42
You may only partially understand.
00:56:44
So one of the things that I do for Asian efficiency
00:56:48
is I host the Productivity Show podcast
00:56:50
and I go on and I do research every single week
00:56:53
for a Productivity topic.
00:56:56
And I am scared that I am a poser,
00:57:00
that I am a chauffeur.
00:57:02
Because even though I live in this space,
00:57:05
I eat and breathe this stuff.
00:57:08
I am scared that I am spouting off information
00:57:13
that I have not fully internalized and really understand.
00:57:18
I guess I'm a little bit scared that I am missing
00:57:22
the real point of some of this stuff.
00:57:26
And I do not want to come across as not being authentic
00:57:30
or genuine.
00:57:31
And I want to make sure that the stuff that I do
00:57:35
give as advice, it is stuff that I know works.
00:57:40
I don't wanna mislead anybody,
00:57:42
which is why I try to talk about my own personal experience
00:57:45
as much as possible.
00:57:46
Because it's hard to dispute that.
00:57:50
This is what I did, this is the result that I got.
00:57:52
I can't really argue that.
00:57:53
But if you're trying to spout off something else
00:57:56
that you've gotten from somebody else
00:57:58
and like, hey, you should totally do this,
00:58:00
then that's dangerous, I think.
00:58:04
- This one was on my list too.
00:58:06
So you took this one from me as well.
00:58:08
But I have this on here because of one,
00:58:11
it's fascinating to me too.
00:58:13
I am with you in that I don't want to fall into this one.
00:58:16
So I'm aware that it would be very easy for me to,
00:58:19
like in the, especially in the productivity space,
00:58:21
we talk about this all the time.
00:58:22
And we went into this earlier with the ethical use bit.
00:58:26
But I know that it would be very easy for me to say,
00:58:30
here's what you should do and here's how this should work.
00:58:33
And this is what everybody recommends
00:58:35
and spout it off as if I am very familiar with it
00:58:39
and it's something I do all the time.
00:58:41
Now in some cases, that's true.
00:58:43
I do the exact thing.
00:58:45
And I try to explain the exact process
00:58:47
that I go through on that.
00:58:48
There's a lot of cases where I just suck at it
00:58:52
and I'm terrible at this thing.
00:58:53
And I do the best I can to explain that
00:58:55
'cause I don't want people to think
00:58:58
I'm a hundred percent expert in this.
00:59:00
I'm just maybe a step ahead of some folks that follow me
00:59:03
and that's exactly where I need to be.
00:59:05
So I'm still struggling through all this
00:59:06
and this is exactly why I brought up the ethical thing
00:59:09
because I don't want that,
00:59:12
I don't want to get to a point
00:59:12
where people have that correlation of thinking,
00:59:16
oh, he's just spouting off stuff, he's learned elsewhere.
00:59:19
Like, I don't want to do that.
00:59:20
So I have a pretty strong knee-jerk reaction
00:59:23
to folks that I feel like are doing that
00:59:25
and don't want to go there.
00:59:26
- Yep, totally agree.
00:59:29
- Some with you on that one.
00:59:30
One of the others that I have,
00:59:33
and I mentioned this earlier is the survivorship bias
00:59:37
which is the first bias he mentions in the book
00:59:41
and I thought it was very interesting
00:59:44
and it's something that I see a lot of in,
00:59:48
especially entrepreneurs because they will see
00:59:51
someone who did a thing and it's highly successful
00:59:54
and people want to emulate it.
00:59:55
So one example that I would give on this
00:59:58
is the lore podcast, so Aaron Mankey runs that.
01:00:02
It is crazy how many people are now starting to do things
01:00:06
very similar to him and his podcast.
01:00:09
They see the thing he's doing, they're trying to emulate that.
01:00:11
He made it big.
01:00:13
Surely I can make it big too if I simply do what he's doing.
01:00:17
The example in the book was rock stars.
01:00:19
There was a guy who saw he was seeing
01:00:21
all these successful rock stars.
01:00:23
I could be a rock star.
01:00:24
Well, what you're not seeing is all the failures
01:00:27
and all the people who didn't make it.
01:00:30
So the title of that chapter is,
01:00:32
"Why You Should Visit Cemeteries"
01:00:34
that way you can see all the people who didn't make it
01:00:36
and all the people who didn't become overnight success
01:00:41
in that case, quote unquote, overnight.
01:00:43
But it's something that I see a number of people trying to do.
01:00:47
I have even helped some people try to get businesses
01:00:51
off the ground that are kind of borderline this
01:00:54
because they feel like they see something,
01:00:57
they want to emulate another site,
01:00:58
they want to follow the pattern
01:01:01
of a bigger successful business.
01:01:04
And although that's a good thing to do in some cases,
01:01:06
you don't want to copy them verbatim.
01:01:09
It's going to go badly because they've been successful.
01:01:12
That's them, they're being true to themselves.
01:01:14
You're not in that case.
01:01:16
So it can be kind of dangerous to fall down that slope,
01:01:20
but just be aware that people tend to do this.
01:01:24
And I'm fascinated by it because I'm,
01:01:26
I don't struggle with this one at all
01:01:29
because I know there's a lot of failures
01:01:30
and you have to get through some of those failures
01:01:32
to get to the success.
01:01:34
And I know that a lot of people have just had
01:01:38
to completely give up the thing that they had as a dream
01:01:41
because it didn't work out for them
01:01:43
because they didn't have X, Y, and Z
01:01:45
that made it possible.
01:01:46
So I see this, so I try to help people see it,
01:01:50
but I'm not one that struggles with,
01:01:52
oh, they made it big, I can do it too.
01:01:54
Like I don't typically go that far out.
01:01:58
- Yeah, this is interesting because I think it touches
01:02:00
on another cognitive bias, which is exponential growth
01:02:03
because people see the success of lore
01:02:07
and they view it as overnight success,
01:02:11
but in my opinion, suddenly never comes suddenly.
01:02:15
I was actually on the Homework Podcast,
01:02:17
which Aaron Maki hosted with Dave Kalo
01:02:21
before lore became big.
01:02:24
And like I remember when I recorded him with them,
01:02:28
he had mentioned that this was kind of a side project
01:02:30
that he was doing and he had just launched,
01:02:32
I think at that time he had just been on
01:02:33
Systematic with Brett Turpstra and talked about it,
01:02:36
but it really hadn't taken off yet.
01:02:38
I thought it was cool, but he was still pretty excited
01:02:43
about it and it was still pretty new.
01:02:45
Not saying that he's not excited about it now,
01:02:47
but like when you start something new,
01:02:48
you're usually like super excited about it
01:02:50
because you have no idea where it could actually go.
01:02:53
And in this particular instance, it ended up taking off.
01:02:56
Even if these copycats had something a little bit unique
01:03:00
about their story, it's gonna take a long time
01:03:05
before they would achieve a success that Aaron has
01:03:08
because Aaron did this for a long time.
01:03:10
It was essentially a passion project
01:03:12
and that term gets thrown around a lot.
01:03:13
And I think it kind of has a negative connotation,
01:03:16
but it's something that he was doing for fun
01:03:19
before it was going to pay all of his bills
01:03:22
and lead to the lifestyle that he now has.
01:03:24
And that's what makes it successful.
01:03:26
The exponential growth, that's the concept of,
01:03:29
we don't understand exponential math
01:03:35
as well as we understand linear math.
01:03:36
We can add things, but we don't multiply things very well.
01:03:39
And the story that he uses there
01:03:41
is like the penny doubled every day
01:03:43
that results in over $5 million.
01:03:45
Most people you say you want a penny doubled every day
01:03:47
or $1,000 for 30 days.
01:03:49
So you have $30,000 at the end of the 30 days.
01:03:51
A lot of people without doing the math,
01:03:52
just thinking about it, they take the $30,000.
01:03:55
But the penny doubled, the exponential growth,
01:03:58
that's the key to growing.
01:03:59
That's the key to success.
01:04:01
And you don't see that when you just look at the result,
01:04:04
and you just look at Laura and you'll be like,
01:04:05
oh, I could do that.
01:04:07
Well, you could, but you won't.
01:04:10
You're gonna give up long before Aaron did,
01:04:15
because you're not seeing that exponential growth yet.
01:04:18
- You're also not seeing all the difficulties
01:04:21
that he has to deal with on that.
01:04:23
- Exactly.
01:04:24
- So you don't know the backstory.
01:04:26
- Yeah, if you don't really have the Y
01:04:30
to get you through that initial,
01:04:33
before the hockey stick growth,
01:04:36
you won't make it.
01:04:39
There is gonna be, like you said,
01:04:40
a lot of trials to overcome.
01:04:42
There's gonna be a lot of adversity
01:04:43
you're gonna have to overcome,
01:04:45
but it can be worth it in the end,
01:04:49
but you have to have your own reason for it.
01:04:52
You can't just be like, oh, I wanna copy this guy over there.
01:04:54
Like that is not gonna be enough to see you through.
01:04:57
- So what else fascinates you?
01:05:01
- So many winners, Chris, this is interesting,
01:05:04
because if you think about any sort of auction,
01:05:08
the specifically the example that comes to mind for me
01:05:12
is free agency for sports.
01:05:14
The winner of the auction often turns out to be the loser,
01:05:20
because by definition of the auction,
01:05:23
they are willing to pay more than anybody else,
01:05:25
so they are paying above market value.
01:05:28
And as we're recording this, kind of the NBA free agency,
01:05:32
when it has been going on the last month or so,
01:05:36
and there's people who are signing like $200 million contracts,
01:05:39
and you just see that stuff and you're just like,
01:05:42
wow, that is ridiculous.
01:05:44
I won't, I'm won from, 'cause it is a lot of money,
01:05:47
but that's a separate discussion.
01:05:48
I mean, if the market is going to pay that,
01:05:50
then more power to you.
01:05:52
But even if you understand the market,
01:05:54
and you say that, yeah, that salary,
01:05:55
like the money is justified.
01:05:59
Generally speaking, what I've noticed is that
01:06:01
you find out that this certain player
01:06:03
signed for this much money, and you're like, what?
01:06:06
Like they're not a superstar,
01:06:08
how did they get that much money?
01:06:10
And it's because of this winner's curse,
01:06:13
and this can obviously play out in a lot of different arenas,
01:06:17
but that's the one that I kind of see in the news,
01:06:20
but I mean, eBay auctions, whatever,
01:06:23
like there's a lot of different ways
01:06:25
that this could manifest, and I think it's interesting
01:06:29
to see that any sort of auction,
01:06:32
like you are going to be overpaying.
01:06:34
(chuckles)
01:06:35
- Yes, that's the whole purpose of that thing.
01:06:38
Like the way an auction works is designed
01:06:41
to raise the prices as you can.
01:06:44
Yeah, don't call that that.
01:06:45
- You basically can't win with an auction style.
01:06:49
- Right, right.
01:06:50
Unless there's no one else there that's interested in it,
01:06:52
you know what it's worth, and you don't pay up any more,
01:06:55
unless you come in it that way,
01:06:57
and you just get lucky that no one else is there,
01:07:00
it's never gonna work out well.
01:07:02
- Yeah, but see, that's the thing I think
01:07:04
is interesting about this,
01:07:05
is that's a very dangerous assumption to make,
01:07:07
is like, oh, look, I discovered this thing,
01:07:09
and there's so many other people out there
01:07:10
that would pay more for this,
01:07:11
but they don't know about it.
01:07:13
- Right. - Especially in today's society,
01:07:15
like people know about it. (chuckles)
01:07:17
- Yeah, it's kind of the way it works.
01:07:19
The last one here on my list of those
01:07:21
fascinate me, and I shouldn't say it's the last one
01:07:25
that fascinates me because a ton of these fascinate me,
01:07:28
but the one that I wrote down, anyway, is anchoring,
01:07:31
and you see this a lot with pricing strategies,
01:07:34
especially when prices are up for negotiation,
01:07:39
because someone will drop a number,
01:07:41
and that sets the baseline by which
01:07:43
all other numbers are judged.
01:07:45
So if you think about walking into, say, a car dealership,
01:07:49
and you see $10,000 on a car,
01:07:52
you're probably more apt to spend, say, 9,000 on it,
01:07:57
or 9,500 because your baseline was 10,000,
01:08:00
but if you do some more digging,
01:08:01
you may find out that that car is worth 6,000,
01:08:04
but because they had the baseline so high,
01:08:06
they anchored it so high,
01:08:08
you tend to not go down that far
01:08:10
when you're talking about it,
01:08:11
and you see this a lot of times,
01:08:12
it doesn't have to be the same thing,
01:08:14
even if you're talking about something completely unrelated,
01:08:17
let's talk about, say, consulting prices.
01:08:20
I'm going to charge, say, $1,000, $1,500
01:08:25
for an hour of my time to talk through something,
01:08:28
or we could spend $400 on this whole thing,
01:08:32
like this other, say, video course of sorts.
01:08:35
These are things that Mike and I work on quite a bit,
01:08:37
and I'm just throwing numbers out there.
01:08:39
I'm not pulling anything out specifically,
01:08:41
but if you use that baseline as the $1,500,
01:08:46
$400 seems crazy cheap,
01:08:47
so of course, let's jump in and buy that.
01:08:50
Even though it's two videos,
01:08:51
and they're both 30 seconds long,
01:08:53
it's not worth $400.
01:08:55
So that doesn't add up,
01:08:57
that's not what you spend on that,
01:08:59
but people would do it because of how it's anchored.
01:09:02
- Yep. - There you go.
01:09:04
- I really like the anchoring bias as well,
01:09:08
and this isn't one of those ones
01:09:09
that is used in marketing all the time,
01:09:12
and really this is why you really have to trust
01:09:15
the person who is marketing to you,
01:09:17
because if they say this thing is worth $10,000,
01:09:20
and you buy the one that's worth $9,500,
01:09:23
you have to really believe them when they say
01:09:25
this is worth $10,000.
01:09:27
That's where in the past,
01:09:29
I've seen, you go to anywhere,
01:09:31
even, well, it's used something like Slack,
01:09:34
and you go to sign up for Slack,
01:09:35
and you see the different plans that are available.
01:09:37
It's like the free, the basic,
01:09:38
and the enterprise or something like that.
01:09:41
They're anchoring off of the enterprise,
01:09:42
and you work backwards,
01:09:43
and you find the one in the middle.
01:09:46
And Slack is an awesome service.
01:09:48
I love it, we use it with Asian efficiency,
01:09:50
we use it a couple other teams that I'm involved with.
01:09:54
I know a lot of people,
01:09:55
I haven't personally had to pay for any of the premium features
01:09:59
because of the way that we use it,
01:10:01
but I know a lot of people who do.
01:10:03
They trust the company,
01:10:05
but that anchoring bias,
01:10:06
that's not a bad thing in Slack's case,
01:10:10
because they're providing the different options,
01:10:13
but any sort of web service that you go to,
01:10:15
they'll use the same sort of thing.
01:10:18
And if you just go there cold
01:10:19
and you have no idea who it is,
01:10:20
or what the service is all about,
01:10:23
that's where you really have to be aware
01:10:25
of that type of stuff.
01:10:26
And so, you mentioned buying a car, for example,
01:10:29
really important who you buy your car from.
01:10:31
You don't wanna buy it from the sleazy car salesman
01:10:35
who is gonna sell you a lemon,
01:10:37
but if you really trust the person that you're buying from,
01:10:39
and they say, "This one's worth $10,000,
01:10:41
"this one's worth $9,500,
01:10:42
"doesn't have this sister this."
01:10:45
You can use anchoring bias,
01:10:47
and it doesn't have to be a negative thing.
01:10:49
- Yes, yes, I'm with you.
01:10:51
- A little bit of a tangent, sorry.
01:10:53
(laughs)
01:10:54
- That's all right, I'm with you.
01:10:55
We see this stuff a lot.
01:10:57
- All right, so, there's two I wanna call out.
01:11:02
The one I wanna call it just because it's appropriate
01:11:07
for our audience is the zygronic effect,
01:11:09
which I think maybe we've even mentioned
01:11:11
on this podcast before.
01:11:13
This was interesting because he talks about
01:11:15
David Allen specifically,
01:11:16
and I got more about the science behind David Allen's approach
01:11:19
from the three pages here
01:11:20
and the end of the getting things done,
01:11:22
but I think he talks about how we keep
01:11:25
uncompleted things in our head,
01:11:28
and we clear them when they are finished.
01:11:29
But what's interesting about this
01:11:31
is that those outstanding tasks only nod us
01:11:33
until we know how we're going to deal with them.
01:11:37
And that's why task managers are so important.
01:11:39
Okay, so that one I think is interesting
01:11:42
from a productivity perspective,
01:11:43
but the one that I have an action item for
01:11:46
is the news illusion where we are incredibly well informed,
01:11:51
yet we know incredibly little.
01:11:54
There's, I mean, especially now, I think,
01:11:58
with this current state of news,
01:12:00
you get very biased information no matter
01:12:03
what side you associate with.
01:12:07
And there's a book by Simon Sinek
01:12:10
where he kind of explains why this is the case
01:12:12
called leaders eat last, I believe.
01:12:15
And he talks about some of the regulations that were passed
01:12:18
and basically when news companies had,
01:12:21
they didn't have as strict guidelines
01:12:24
on presenting different sides of the story.
01:12:27
You got people who sensationalized one side of the story
01:12:30
because it resulted in higher ratings
01:12:32
and you find yourself in situation we are today.
01:12:35
But really the thing that I took away from this
01:12:39
is that we don't need all of that news.
01:12:42
We don't need to know everything that is going on
01:12:44
because it doesn't have any positive benefit.
01:12:48
And so one of my takeaways here is no news,
01:12:52
except for tech news.
01:12:53
And that's just because I find it interesting
01:12:55
and I want to know about that sort of stuff.
01:12:58
It has a direct application to a lot of the work that I do,
01:13:02
but I don't need to necessarily go on to CNN
01:13:05
or Fox News or MSNBC or any of those other stations
01:13:08
that just find out what's going on in the world.
01:13:10
I've often told people, and this is not something
01:13:14
that I've really firmly internalized,
01:13:17
but I use Twitter fairly often.
01:13:19
That's really the only social media network I'm on.
01:13:22
And I like to look at the trends every once in a while
01:13:24
because I feel like that gives you a pretty accurate view
01:13:27
of what people think about what is going on in the world
01:13:30
as opposed to it being colored or tainted by one side
01:13:35
or the other.
01:13:36
And so I guess this was justification for me to use Twitter
01:13:39
as my news since I'm already there
01:13:41
and not feel like I'm missing out
01:13:43
because I don't subscribe to a quote unquote real news source.
01:13:46
- I don't like the news at all.
01:13:49
I have avoided it for a while 'cause even if, like,
01:13:54
of course there's the confirmation bias that comes in.
01:13:57
You're only gonna listen to the one that talks about
01:13:59
the things that you like and in the way that you liked them.
01:14:03
But at the same time, ratings go up
01:14:07
if negative things are talked about.
01:14:09
- Exactly.
01:14:10
- As opposed to positive.
01:14:11
So every time I come away from watching the news,
01:14:14
which the only time I really watch the news
01:14:16
is when I am somehow stuck in front of a TV at, say,
01:14:20
a hotel, try and eat breakfast, and they've got the news on.
01:14:23
That's about the only time I really watch the news,
01:14:26
which is awesome.
01:14:27
But it's something that I know if I spend time watching the news.
01:14:31
I only have to watch it for about five or six minutes.
01:14:34
And they've, like, jumped through, like, seven stories
01:14:36
in that amount of time.
01:14:37
And I just feel like the world is going to collapse
01:14:40
because of what they're presenting.
01:14:42
It doesn't matter what it is, what station it is.
01:14:45
It seems to always be the same.
01:14:47
- Yep, yep, definitely agree.
01:14:50
- All right, so how do you overcome this stuff?
01:14:53
Do you overcome it?
01:14:54
I think you alluded to this earlier
01:14:57
of being aware of them but being okay,
01:14:59
not worrying about them in some cases.
01:15:02
And I think there's a lot of value in that
01:15:03
because if you're trying to overcome all of these,
01:15:06
how many are in here, Mike?
01:15:07
Did you, what was the number?
01:15:08
It was like 100--
01:15:09
- I believe there were 99 of them.
01:15:12
And so that's a pretty big checklist.
01:15:14
(Mike laughs)
01:15:15
- See, he should have come up with one more.
01:15:17
(Mike laughs)
01:15:18
But biases against biases, maybe.
01:15:21
But I feel like if you're trying to overcome these things,
01:15:25
like, this is not gonna happen.
01:15:27
Like, you're not going to overcome all of them.
01:15:29
I think over time, you can slowly build up resolve
01:15:32
against certain ones and know which ones you're susceptible to
01:15:36
and find ways to overcome those.
01:15:38
There's probably some value in doing that.
01:15:39
I know that from us reading so many books
01:15:43
and in such short time frames,
01:15:44
you tend to hear about certain ones.
01:15:47
On occasion that get talked about in more detail,
01:15:50
I know going through this, there was probably six or seven
01:15:52
of them that I know we've talked about in other books.
01:15:56
And they're things that I feel like
01:15:57
I've been working to overcome as it is.
01:15:59
So I think there's some value in reading through this
01:16:02
and just seeing what they are and knowing
01:16:03
that you're gonna have to try to beat some of them.
01:16:05
And then just building that over time.
01:16:07
I don't think you're gonna just sit down and say,
01:16:08
I'm gonna beat this one today.
01:16:11
It's not gonna work that way.
01:16:13
- Right, actually when I was reading this,
01:16:15
I was thinking about the decision-making framework
01:16:17
from decisive, the rap format.
01:16:20
Widen your options, reality test your assumptions,
01:16:25
attain distance and prepare to be wrong.
01:16:28
And the four specific villains of decision-making
01:16:31
that they address in that book,
01:16:33
a couple of them are cognitive biases.
01:16:36
So it's addressing them specifically.
01:16:38
And as I was reading this, let's think back to that.
01:16:40
And that's a great framework,
01:16:41
but it's assuming that these are the cognitive biases
01:16:44
that impact you or you're most susceptible to.
01:16:47
And so I think there's some value
01:16:48
in identifying where your weaknesses are.
01:16:51
The strategy to overcome them, I kind of alluded to this,
01:16:54
but he's got in the epilogue, the strategy.
01:16:57
And he starts it off by saying that just because you,
01:17:01
you've read through these doesn't mean
01:17:03
that you're not gonna struggle with them anymore.
01:17:04
He admits that he struggles with them.
01:17:06
Kind of the way that he attacks this is that
01:17:11
he recognizes these cognitive biases
01:17:15
and tries to overcome them
01:17:16
when he's making a really important decision.
01:17:17
But the trivial stuff, the day-to-day stuff,
01:17:20
he's fine letting his emotions handle that
01:17:23
because if you were to employ a framework
01:17:26
for every single decision that you make,
01:17:28
the average person makes 35,000 decisions a day.
01:17:32
So if you're gonna go through a 99-point checklist
01:17:34
for every one of those 35,000 decisions,
01:17:36
you'll have, well, you won't even get through all 35,000.
01:17:40
You won't actually do anything and you'll be exhausted.
01:17:44
So the efficiency mechanism is where you do allow
01:17:47
your emotions to make some of the decisions
01:17:50
and you don't worry about the fact that
01:17:53
these cognitive biases may come into play
01:17:54
when you're choosing which restaurant you're gonna go
01:17:56
out to eat at or what you're gonna wear in the morning.
01:18:00
You're not gonna go through, oh, the overconfidence effect
01:18:04
is kicking in here as I'm choosing which shirt to wear.
01:18:07
It doesn't matter.
01:18:08
- Just run with it.
01:18:10
- Yeah, yeah.
01:18:11
And so I think everybody's gotta find their own balance
01:18:14
with this, but basically, I think it's the knowledge
01:18:18
of these things that they exist that is beneficial.
01:18:21
Going through all 99 of these
01:18:22
and not being able to recite all 99 of these,
01:18:24
not having them all written down in a book,
01:18:26
even in my notes, which I have this huge mind node,
01:18:29
I did not write down every single one.
01:18:31
I wrote down most of them, what they were
01:18:33
and the big takeaways to me,
01:18:35
like what spoke to me as I read through it.
01:18:38
But you don't need to recognize every single decision
01:18:41
that you make that all of this stuff is coming into play.
01:18:44
You just need to know what are the ways that you could fail
01:18:47
when you really do need to make a good important decision.
01:18:51
And then what are the steps that you personally
01:18:53
should take in order to overcome that?
01:18:55
And I think that's where this book offers a lot of value.
01:18:58
He doesn't give specific strategies
01:19:00
for every single one of these,
01:19:02
but in the words of G.I. Joe,
01:19:04
now you know and knowing is half the battle.
01:19:07
Way to go, G.I. Joe.
01:19:09
So for action items here, one of the things that I,
01:19:15
well, the only thing I wrote down here,
01:19:17
'cause so much of this is just be aware of this,
01:19:20
which that's a lot of books, it seems like,
01:19:22
okay, just use this as knowledge
01:19:25
when you're making decisions and talking in the future.
01:19:27
But in this case, the one that I wrote down specifically here
01:19:31
is working through my marketing strategies online.
01:19:34
And we talked about this a lot earlier.
01:19:36
It's something I've been struggling with.
01:19:38
I'm working through it on theoretical,
01:19:39
to a point, and it's something it's,
01:19:42
I've kind of been painfully aware of it lately,
01:19:45
and I say painfully aware very intentionally I do that
01:19:49
because it has literally caused pain to my brain at times.
01:19:52
So, okay, I need to figure this out.
01:19:55
What is it I want to do?
01:19:56
'Cause I want to grow so many of these things online
01:19:59
that I'm doing, but I don't want to do that
01:20:01
in a scammy way, I guess, would be the way to say that.
01:20:05
So I'm just trying to nail down,
01:20:06
what is it I'm okay with?
01:20:08
What is it that I like to do,
01:20:09
and how do I find a good way to do that?
01:20:13
That's what I got.
01:20:14
- Yeah, it makes sense.
01:20:16
The action items that I had,
01:20:18
one of them I talked about already,
01:20:19
that is the no news, except tech news,
01:20:23
just because I find that specifically interesting
01:20:26
and that's not gonna depress me.
01:20:28
The other one, I wrote it down here
01:20:32
as no when to hold them and when to fold them.
01:20:34
This is being the epilogue,
01:20:36
and just recognizing what are the decisions
01:20:39
that I should be considering my cognitive biases.
01:20:43
For example, if I were going to change careers,
01:20:46
take a different job, whatever,
01:20:47
like the big decisions, like that where I want to move
01:20:50
to that sort of thing, like that's where I want to recognize
01:20:53
that this stuff is actually coming into play.
01:20:56
And then recognizing when not to consider
01:21:00
the cognitive biases.
01:21:02
For example, when booking a flight, choosing a restaurant,
01:21:05
whatever, recognize that,
01:21:07
I don't need to collect all of the information,
01:21:09
I can just offload this,
01:21:10
I can make the emotional decision, and it's gonna be fine.
01:21:14
- And you have to be okay with that.
01:21:16
- So I guess the takeaway from that,
01:21:19
if you were gonna try to hold me accountable to this,
01:21:22
is did I make any stupid decisions take much longer
01:21:26
than they needed to be?
01:21:27
(laughs)
01:21:29
- Okay.
01:21:30
I will ask you that question next time, Mike.
01:21:33
- Okay.
01:21:34
(laughs)
01:21:36
- So author's style,
01:21:37
I like kind of the rapid fire of this one,
01:21:41
and a lot of cases I don't like that,
01:21:43
but he spells it out in the intro
01:21:45
that I'm not going to explain how to beat these things,
01:21:48
I'm just going to share with you this list
01:21:50
that I have collected over time.
01:21:52
And he does a very good job of giving you tons and tons
01:21:56
of examples, there are hundreds of examples in this thing.
01:21:59
And I think there's like two or three examples per cognitive
01:22:03
bias, and when you think about them being two and a half,
01:22:05
three pages long, each, like that,
01:22:07
he's covering stories quick, and it's a lot of them.
01:22:10
It's one that would be very hard to skim, I would say.
01:22:14
Like there's no way you could really skim through this
01:22:16
and understand each one of them at the depth that you could,
01:22:20
like you would just miss a bunch of things.
01:22:22
If you did that.
01:22:23
So he has a very engaging style,
01:22:25
'cause it's interesting to read,
01:22:27
and you want to just keep going on it.
01:22:29
It is, there's not a real easy way to summarize it.
01:22:32
That's why we didn't really try to go through it at all.
01:22:36
There's not a way to just say,
01:22:38
this is something you need to do,
01:22:39
'cause there's so many different things here.
01:22:43
It's like a whole bunch of little stuff,
01:22:45
which are all helpful, but really hard to summarize.
01:22:48
So I do really like it.
01:22:51
I'm not really sure how to rate this one though.
01:22:54
Like I've been sitting here trying to figure out
01:22:55
what to put this at.
01:22:57
I'm inclined to put it at a 4.0,
01:23:00
'cause I really like the book,
01:23:02
but I'm not real sure what else I want out of it,
01:23:04
but it doesn't feel like it's a five or even a 4.5.
01:23:08
I'm not really sure, but I think I'm putting it at a 4.0,
01:23:10
but I don't really have a good rationale for that one, Mike.
01:23:14
- Fair enough.
01:23:15
Yeah, I struggled with that as well,
01:23:17
partly because I felt like,
01:23:20
because we're reading it for Bookworm,
01:23:22
I needed to take good notes on this.
01:23:26
The, I think it would have felt totally different
01:23:29
if I was just reading this for fun,
01:23:30
and I could read these three page chapters and just be like,
01:23:33
oh, that was interesting.
01:23:34
We'll find the next one,
01:23:36
which is what I did sometimes,
01:23:38
but most of these I tried to at least write down
01:23:40
like what it actually was so I could decide
01:23:43
if it's something that was worth talking about.
01:23:45
So in some ways, this was kind of stressful to read.
01:23:50
I'm gonna share with you the PDF version of my Mind Node file,
01:23:55
and you can feel free to put this in the show notes
01:23:57
if you want, excuse any typos
01:23:58
because most of it was done on my phone,
01:24:01
but it's enormous.
01:24:02
And I don't know, I mean, there's definitely,
01:24:08
I got a lot, I got a lot out of this book.
01:24:10
There's a lot in here and his stories are great.
01:24:13
I mean, every single three page section,
01:24:15
he's got powerful stories.
01:24:16
He's got a lot of research that he cites.
01:24:19
Like I'm very impressed by the amount of work
01:24:21
that went into this book.
01:24:23
But that being said, it's definitely not
01:24:26
a five star, in my opinion either.
01:24:28
And because of the way that I went through it,
01:24:34
I kind of dreaded it in some sense
01:24:39
because I guess it comes back to the chauffeur
01:24:42
knowledge thing.
01:24:43
I knew that he really understood this stuff
01:24:45
a lot better than I did.
01:24:47
I felt a little bit inadequate, I guess,
01:24:51
getting on the microphone today and talking about this stuff
01:24:53
because I'm like, I don't really understand
01:24:54
what all this stuff is.
01:24:55
You have three pages is enough to help me understand
01:24:57
procrastination or the gambler's fallacy
01:24:59
or any of that stuff.
01:25:02
So I struggle with this as well.
01:25:04
I think I'm gonna meet you at the foro.
01:25:07
It's definitely like a lot of great content
01:25:09
which is why I can't really justify reading it
01:25:11
lower than that, but it also wasn't anything
01:25:15
that just blew me out of the water
01:25:17
and it's like, oh, this is amazing.
01:25:18
I can't wait to tell everybody I know about this book.
01:25:21
Certain people I think will get a lot out of this book.
01:25:23
I also think that it's gonna be completely overwhelming
01:25:27
for some people as well.
01:25:28
- Right, yeah, I'm with you.
01:25:30
I think a lot of what we do on Bookworm
01:25:32
could come across as the chauffeurs thing,
01:25:36
but just know listeners, we're learning this as we go.
01:25:40
Like we just finished the book
01:25:42
so we're talking about something we just read.
01:25:44
So just be aware of that.
01:25:46
So I don't know that we really need to change anything
01:25:48
for that.
01:25:49
It's just something that,
01:25:51
this is the nature of the show.
01:25:52
So it goes.
01:25:53
So we got a couple foros there
01:25:57
and what we've got for upcoming books.
01:26:01
See, this one was your choice.
01:26:02
Next one's mine.
01:26:04
Upcoming is The Legend of the Monk and the Merchant
01:26:07
by Terry Felber.
01:26:09
And this is the last of the Dave Ramsey books, Mike.
01:26:12
- Nice.
01:26:14
We get through this one and no more Dave Ramsey books.
01:26:18
I don't know if I'm excited about that.
01:26:20
Sad about that.
01:26:21
It just is.
01:26:22
- It means we can go work for Dave Ramsey, right?
01:26:24
- Ooh, there you go.
01:26:26
We get after that.
01:26:29
- I mentioned I actually met him,
01:26:30
well, didn't actually meet him.
01:26:32
I saw him at an Anshia Leadership one day event.
01:26:36
And he's an interesting guy.
01:26:40
I really appreciate his perspective
01:26:43
on leadership specifically.
01:26:45
Everybody kind of knows him as the money guy,
01:26:47
but I think that the money principles
01:26:50
that he teaches on a show and stuff like that,
01:26:52
those have application in a lot of different ways,
01:26:54
which is why Anshia Leadership is kind of a cool brand.
01:26:58
The whole time I was sitting there though,
01:26:59
I was kind of thinking to myself,
01:27:01
there's no way I could work for this guy.
01:27:03
(laughing)
01:27:05
- That is actually a conversation I've had to have
01:27:08
with my wife before because he is always looking
01:27:11
for Ruby on Rails developers, which is my bread and butter.
01:27:15
So I have had to have this conversation before,
01:27:19
but always the bullet that kills it every single time
01:27:23
is you have to live in Tennessee to work for him.
01:27:28
And we're pretty firmly rooted in Minnesota.
01:27:30
So that's not something that I would need
01:27:34
to consider in reality, but it is a conversation
01:27:38
I've had to have before.
01:27:40
- Yeah, yeah. (laughing)
01:27:43
One after that is one that I picked up a little bit ago
01:27:47
and is one of those classics, I guess.
01:27:51
Thinking Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill.
01:27:56
And I think this will be interesting to cover
01:27:59
on Bookworm and it kind of fills a spot
01:28:02
in the library kind of like seven habits
01:28:04
of how the effect of people did,
01:28:06
where it's like, okay, you guys talk about productivity books,
01:28:08
but you haven't covered this one yet.
01:28:11
So that's really a justification.
01:28:13
I don't know much about this book
01:28:14
other than a couple of people that I really respect
01:28:17
have recommended it.
01:28:18
It was written quite a while ago though,
01:28:20
so it'll be interesting to go through this.
01:28:23
- Yeah, I'm excited about that one as well.
01:28:26
For a gap book, I am reading Getting Things Done, Mike.
01:28:30
(laughing)
01:28:32
- The other one.
01:28:33
- Oh, right, the other one.
01:28:34
Yeah, it's by Edwin Bliss.
01:28:37
So this is one, and maybe we should be doing this one
01:28:41
for a bookworm, I don't know,
01:28:42
but I had this one recommended to me by Mike Vardy
01:28:45
over on the Productivitiest.
01:28:47
And he mentioned that he shared this on Instagram.
01:28:52
People kind of went nuts wanting to know something about it
01:28:55
and I happened to order it
01:28:57
and I didn't really think about that a whole lot.
01:29:00
So I posted a picture of the order of books I had come in
01:29:03
and everybody wanted to know about this one.
01:29:05
- Oh, I get what you're saying, Mr. Vardy.
01:29:08
That's, yeah, people always, what is that?
01:29:11
Oh, yeah, well, it's from way back before David Allen did.
01:29:15
His book, this one is, what was it?
01:29:17
It was published in 1976.
01:29:20
So it's an older one.
01:29:22
So I'm gonna go through that one,
01:29:24
just kind of curious as to what a mid '70s version
01:29:27
of Getting Things Done is.
01:29:29
- And the one that I have for a gap book,
01:29:32
I don't think I've mentioned this one before,
01:29:34
but I couldn't go back and see if I mentioned on the last show
01:29:38
or not.
01:29:38
And that is Confessions of the Pricing Man by Herman Simon.
01:29:43
And this is an economics book in a lot of ways.
01:29:50
It talks about, like the subtitle says
01:29:54
how price affects everything.
01:29:56
It uses a lot of stories and a lot of examples
01:29:59
of what happened when companies did this sort of thing.
01:30:03
And so that's kind of right up my alley.
01:30:05
I'm a little bit of a nerd when it comes to that sort of stuff,
01:30:07
understanding why companies launch a product
01:30:10
at a specific price point and the impact that it has.
01:30:13
He uses stories in there about how people were like,
01:30:14
on the verge of bankruptcy, they doubled their price
01:30:17
and all of a sudden they're doing really well,
01:30:18
even the product didn't change.
01:30:21
Like the number of sales goes up
01:30:23
because they just raised the price.
01:30:24
And so this kind of goes along with our discussion
01:30:27
on the marketing, but I wanna understand
01:30:29
how this really impacts selling products.
01:30:34
And I wanna be able to use the principles that are in here
01:30:38
in a lot of the projects that I'm working on,
01:30:40
not in a manipulative way like we talked about today,
01:30:42
but just understanding the economics behind things.
01:30:46
- Yeah, last time you were talking about 10% happier.
01:30:50
- Oh yeah, yeah.
01:30:51
- That was the one you were going to last time.
01:30:52
So, I don't know, it sounds interesting.
01:30:54
Maybe I should pick this one up as well.
01:30:55
That looks like an interesting topic.
01:30:58
This is a recommendation by Tan and also Brooks
01:31:02
from Agent Efficiency.
01:31:03
And I have not been disappointed yet
01:31:06
by a book that Tan has recommended.
01:31:08
- Okay, good to know.
01:31:11
I know that I've got,
01:31:14
I'm wrapping up the list of books that I had,
01:31:18
'cause I tend to select my books like five in a row
01:31:20
and just plan them all out.
01:31:21
And I'm coming up to the end of that
01:31:22
and I need to start filling in what my next five
01:31:26
are going to be and I'm planning to do that 100%
01:31:30
from the book recommendations from listeners.
01:31:33
At least on my end of things,
01:31:34
I don't know what Mike's gonna do,
01:31:35
but listeners, if you're listening to this,
01:31:37
'cause if you're hearing this, you're listening to this,
01:31:39
but I am going to be going through those book recommendations
01:31:42
and selecting at least five for my selections
01:31:46
in the upcoming list.
01:31:47
So if you want to get your book on that list,
01:31:51
bookworm.fm/recommend, fill it out, send it in,
01:31:55
I'll get it and I'll put it on the book list
01:31:57
and I'll look through that book list
01:31:59
whenever I'm selecting those
01:32:00
and maybe yours will be selected.
01:32:02
There you go.
01:32:04
- Nice.
01:32:05
Yeah, I've selected a couple from the list.
01:32:07
I've not batched them like you're talking about,
01:32:10
but yeah, I'll definitely pick some from the list as well.
01:32:14
I try to balance them between books
01:32:16
that I've been recommended and books
01:32:18
that I wanted to read for a while.
01:32:20
But if you want to give us some feedback,
01:32:25
we would really appreciate it
01:32:26
if you wanted to leave us a five-star review
01:32:28
so we could end KCRW from the top spot
01:32:33
when you search for bookworm on iTunes,
01:32:35
we would really appreciate it.
01:32:37
But all of that feedback really helps guide the show.
01:32:42
We do listen to it and we want to hear what you think.
01:32:46
So you can either contact us via the website
01:32:49
or give us an iTunes review if you've got a moment
01:32:51
that would really help other people find the show
01:32:53
and we would really appreciate it.
01:32:56
- Yeah, I'm one that's going to go through the list
01:32:58
for sure for selecting next books.
01:33:00
I know that I tend to get some other recommendations
01:33:03
here and there.
01:33:05
For some reason I seem to do those as gap books
01:33:07
for some reason.
01:33:08
They tend to fall into that category for me,
01:33:10
but I don't know.
01:33:12
We'll see where I land.
01:33:14
So get your recommendations in.
01:33:15
I'm going to be selecting from that.
01:33:17
And if you're reading along with us and listening along,
01:33:21
the one that we're doing up next
01:33:23
is the legend of the monk and the merchant.
01:33:25
We'll go through that one next time.